2008 Presidential Election Project
The 2008 Presidential Election is a close race and will produce historic results–we will either have our first African-American President or our first female Vice President. It is the first presidential election in over 50 years where neither a sitting president nor vice president is running for office. McCain and Obama are on pace to raise and spend over $1 Billion on this year’s campaign, their acceptance speeches and debates are exceeding 70 million viewers, and there is a large increase in the number of registered voters in nearly every part of the country. The general excitement of this election is higher than any other during your lifetime–and all of this is occurring at the same time there is a serious financial and economic crisis.
To help us further understand this election (and combine several aspects of our political parties, campaigns, and elections unit) we will be working in groups of 5-7 students to follow a particular “swing state” as well as the general election. We will be studying polls, campaign ads, candidate visits, campaign finance and expenditures, strategy, and historic results to predict the winners of each of these states and the Electoral College.
For your assigned races, you and your group will:
¨ Research both major party candidates (including vice presidential candidates): background, experience, etc
¨ Provide both candidates’ stance on key issues relevant to your assigned states (with more detail than just “he’s against the war in Iraq” or “she’s against raising taxes”)
¨ Research financial contributions to both candidates in your states and overall
¨ Research the outcome of previous presidential elections and voter registration in your states
¨Evaluate and analyze your data
¨ Make an informed prediction as to who will win the race in November (assigned states and nationally) through the online Electoral College Prediction Contest.
· http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008/pick-your-president/
So what will your final product look like?
Your group will compose a 5-8 page paper that answers the questions regarding your state, the campaigns, finance and spending, and polling in your state.
Your group will be in charge of creating visuals for our hallway Electoral College map that illustrate the answers to the questions below.
Each member of the group will enter their individual predictions at http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008/pick-your-president/ (your entry should be listed as “CHS yourname”)
In order to complete your assignment, you and/or your group will need to complete the following items:
1. Your State : For your assigned state, you will need to address the following information.
a. What is the current population of your state? How many electoral votes does the state currently have? How many did it hold after the 1980 and 1990 censuses? Is your state gaining or losing in importance in the Electoral College?
b. What percentage of people in your state voted in the last five presidential elections? What about during this election cycle’s primary race; was the turnout high earlier this year? Any signs that voter turnout will be high or low for the 2008 election?
c. What is the ethnic composition of your state? The economic composition? (consider the dominate fields/occupations, military bases, etc) How is this tied to how the state voted in the past and will likely vote in this election?
d. Registration: Are more people registered to vote in your state than in years earlier? Why is this?
e. How has your state voted in the past five presidential elections? Lean Democratic/Republican? Solid Dem/Rep? Swing state?
f. What factors have accounted for why your state have favored the Democratic or Republican candidates over the past five elections? (Think: Did certain candidates or situations alter voting patterns? Influences of ethnic groups? Economic groups? Main businesses in your state?)
g. What are the THREE top overall issues in your state? Why do you feel these particular issues are of such importance to your states? Are these the same issues that were important to your states during the primaries?
2. Candidates’ Stances:
a. Where do BOTH candidates stand on the THREE issues that you selected previously for your state? Are these issues integral to each candidate’s campaign or a superfluous issue, addressed but not focused on? (use the candidate’s websites to find details for their plans)
b. Look at both parties’ platforms from previous election years (2000, 2004 & 2008). Do you think the candidate has changed his party’s platform or has the party platform changed the candidate? Will this affect your states’ support for either candidate?
c. Are either of the candidates addressing your states’ key issues in commercials or web ads run outside or inside of your states? Utilize their web pages or YouTube, CNN, or other websites that may have commercials for the candidate. (livingroomcandidate.org) — Other key terms: (Types of Ads) Testimonial, mudslinging, card stacking, plain folks, glittering generalities, bandwagon, contrast
d. How many campaign stops, rallies, or other visits from the Pres. and VP candidates were there in your state? Was there a pattern for each candidate in the type of events, or the area of the state they targeted? How do you think these visits will affect the voting in your state?
e. How do analysts believe your state will vote? Do you agree or disagree with their findings? Why? Explain your predictions using all of the above information.
3. Campaign finance.
How much money has each candidate raised? Total, and from your State.
Where did that money come from? (National party committees, interest groups, individual donors?)
Ø How did they spend that money?
Key book terms: 1974 Federal Campaign Reform Law, Federal Election Commission, soft money, independent expenditures, PACs
Online Resources for the 2008 Election
www.270towin.com (Elec.College predictions)
www.fivethirtyeight.com (Elec.College predictions)
www.electoral-vote.com (Elec.College predictions)
www.smartvoter.org (League of Women Voters)
www.gop.com (Republican Party)
www.democrats.org (Democratic Party)
www.cookpolitical.com (congressional elections)
www.opensecrets.org (campaign contributions)
www.followthemoney.org (state politics)
http://www.barackobama.com/index.php
http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008/pick-your-president/ (pick your predicted map)
http://www.issues2000.org/default.htm (issues arranged by topic and candidate, quotes from candidates)
http://www.publicagenda.org/ (basic non-partisan views on issues)
www.virginia.gov (all state governments set up in the manner)
www.centerforpolitics.org (under “crystal ball” breakdown by Senate races, predictions by state for Senate and president, registered voters stats, etc)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/
www.cnn.com/POLITICS (use this and other news outlets for issues, candidates, etc)
http://elections.gmu.edu/voter_turnout.htm (voter turnout by state)
www.eac.gov/clearinghouse/voter-turnout-and-statistics (voter t/o by category)
http://www.abcnews.go.com/politics/vote2008
www.votesmart.org (campaign finance, issues, voting records, etc
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